Australia NBN
Act now – or the NBN will be a white elephant
The current (Aug 2012) NBN business plan is a fantasy and we must now assume a legislated monopoly will not hold.
The new carrier licence condition that will apply in January may close the loophole in legislation that TPG exploited. But TPG has a Plan B that uses wireless spectrum and cannot be stopped so easily.
The real issue for the NBN is that mobile is rapidly becoming the de-facto standard for broadband access. It is already competitive with the NBN for downloads up to 15 GB per month.
These issues and some ideas for dealing with them are explored in Act now – or the NBN will be a white elephant
The problems of transitional pricing
New all-fibre or part-fibre networks have to persuade customers to migrate from existing legacy copper networks. In the process, regulators and policy makers both in Australia and New Zealand have made the migration more difficult for the next generation network.
This opinion piece looks at how the ACCC missed an opportunity in 2009 and also at the impediment to migration caused by the Commerce Commission in New Zealand.
To read this, click on Economuse 2014-10-15
2014 review of retail broadband pricing
Every September, I review the ADSL2+ and corresponding NBN retail broadband plans to assess the state of price competition. Last year, I concluded that competition had stalled because ISPs were waiting to see realistic NBN wholesale prices and/or settling into a cosy oligopoly.
In the last 12 months, a couple of players (Exetel and TPG) have launched unlimited data plans; which may shake things up a bit. But, it wont help make the NBN more affordable – there are very users who want unlimited data.
To see the results, click Economuse 2014-09-23
Vertigan’s cost benefit analysis
Volume II of the Vertigan reports the cost benefit analysis (CBA) of the NBN. The focus was on the difference between the multi-technology mix approach now used and fibre to the premise. It is no surprise that the former is better in terms of cost and time to deliver.
The surprise was that a key study underpinning the CBA finds that only 5% of households will need 43Mbps by 2023. This has significant implications for the role of mobile broadband, discussed in this opinion piece.
This opinion piece also explores the idea that while there is no current killer application for high speed broadband, the impact of bestowing full speed broadband on traffic and innovation needs to be considered.
In Australia, there is no premium for speed on mobile networks. If the same applied to fixed networks, Australia would lead the world.
The 4 page opinion piece can be read by clicking Economuse 2014-09-15
Hobson’s choice with NBN Co. pricing
NBN Co.’s July consultation paper on pricing and billing has wilfully ignored the only serious option that has been put up against its own product and pricing construct. Unless it is changed, the NBN will not be affordable and will not increase broadband utilisation.
This paper calibrates the options against the 2012-2015 NBN Corporate Plan and other analysis.
It includes the “traffic model” as Option 6 and concludes that this will make the NBN more affordable and give the industry the certainty is seeks in future reductions in unit traffic charges.
The paper can found by clicking here: Economuse 2014-08-14